Biden is close to victory and so is the republicans for senate. Congress could not agree on a stimulus deal before the election. Senate majority leader Mitch McConnel said that their top priority will be a stimulus bill before the end of the year. This means they are ready to talk with Biden and the democrats. But this bill probably a lot smaller than the could be blue wave stimulus package and if a contested election concurs, unemployed Americans and small businesses could lose a lot of precious time before the help came.
Election and delayed stimulus deal put pressure on FED. At tonight’s FOMC meeting, FED probably does nothing and wait for one more meeting before making a move. They already said there will be no negative rates and there is a high probability that the %0,25 rate will hold until 2023. Analysts’ surveys show the market is expecting FED to hold an asset purchasing program at $120 billion. FED may signal an increase in the next meeting.
The dollar index broke the bearish trend at the end of October. After the election price turns to the downside and now we see a backtest to the broken trend line as hours left to FOMC. If this support could hold, the dollar may reverse and move to 94.650 major resistance which may cause a new uptrend if broken.
Like Dollar Index back testing broken down trend line, EURUSD is testing a broken bullish trend line. If price continue to stay below 1.1770, we may see a reverse move to 1.1690 and below that level to 1.1612.
If price can hold for daily closes above trend line, 1.1872 could be the next target for upside moves.
Gold is above downside trend channel and now testing 1920 resistance. 1920 was a major support throughout summer and resistance since September. Price was above 1920 only two times and both of them was temporary and 1933.60 was the highest of them. If gold move past 1920 and 1933.60 resistances, $1973.60 – $2000 gold could be a possibility again.
If 1920 resistance continues to hold its ground and price move back inside of trend channel, downside pressure will rise and 1875 – 1850 supports may be tested at least one more time.