After last week’s vaccine news, gold hammered more than %9. More vaccine news due this week but most of these news already priced in so the effect on gold prices may be minimal.
After the big fall, it got big support from 1850. An uptrend line that effective more than a year, 144-day moving average and last bottom level; all of these key levels converge near 1850 level which makes this support critical for medium-term direction.
With the up movement of gold at near the end of last week, the divergence between inflation expectations and market price closed a little but it still exists. Positive expectations about the economy, stimulus from congress, more QE from FED, and vaccine news against the dangerously increasing number of cases and deaths may cause inflation expectations to move horizontally for some time. You can read a more detailed fundamental analysis for gold in our “Gold Medium Term Outlook” article.
In short term, gold price form a bullish channel. Today gold got support from the lower band of this channel and if price stay above this level, we may see an up move to 1905.