XPTUSD is over the 1045 resistance level. This resistance was limiting upside moves since 2016. Is this just a bullish trap or a move to 1150-1200 target zone has begun, we will see in the coming weeks. If the price can hold over the 1045 for one or two weeks may fuel this upside move.
Both silver and platinum is stayed cheap relative to gold and palladium over the long-term. There are some reasons behind this divergence. Platinum supply-demand balance is in the surplus zone for years. Palladium is used more in the auto industry, especially after the WW emission crisis. In this year, Covid-19 effected both the supply and the demand side. Demand started to pick up in the summer because of China’s strong rebound. Maybe we are looking at the delayed effects of this rebound. One of the biggest producer of platinum South Africa had managed Covid-19 second wave better than expected and now the supply side is starting to rebound too. In 2021 a lot of analysts expecting that platinum supply will reach pre-Covid levels.
This year, silver narrow the divergence a bit by 1 year %46 performance but platinum stayed cheap with below zero performance until November.
XPT/XPD ratio is in the middle of the longest consolidation period for 8 years, except the 2015-2016 correction. 0.50 level is going to be important about serious change for the medium-term balance but for the long-term, palladium’s advantage over platinum continues.
ETF holdings have been supporting the platinum the whole year and final advances have increased the bullishness of ETF’s. CFTC speculative net positions decreased dramatically in the January – April period but stayed on the positive side. If XPTUSD breaks the 1045 resistance a new wave of long positions may fuel the price.
In the short-term, the price extends the bullish trend channel. Over 1045, %150 – %200 – %250 levels of the trend channel which is currently at 1075-1105-1135 levels can be followed as support. If XPT can’t stay over 1045, 1000 may provide support below this level.