Weeks ahead will be important for EURUSD. Today, ECB probably will increase their bond-buying program, European leaders will negotiate on a 750 billion worth of stimulus package. In the coming weeks, the final fate of the Brexit deal and the US stimulus package will be revealed. Again, on December 16, FED’s decision will be critical.
As for today’s ECB decision:
- Markets expect ECB to increase PEPP by around 450-500 billion euros and ECB more likely to extend the program till the end of 2021.
- Similar to the PEPP, TLTRO – III may be extended until the end of 2021.
- ECB may update their projections for inflation and GDP to the downside.
Whatever will be the ECB’s decision, it is important for EURUSD to close weekly above 1.20. If that happens, the upside move may continue at least until the FED meeting. If 1,20 breaks to the downside, 1,1770 may be targeted.