USDCNH has been falling since May and the total retraction is around %9.72. There are a lot of factors that cause CNH to be more appreciated:
- China successfully fights against Covid-19. Aggressive lockdowns in winter and spring then 14-day quarantine measures to all incoming travelers worked really well compared to other nations. This allows the economy to recover faster.
- Trump’s loss of US elections increases the hope of normalization of relations and trade.
- A massive trade deal between fifteen Asia-Pacific region countries.
- Rapidly rising exports. In November, China’s export increased by %21 on yearly basis.
- Low yearly CPI relative to the US.
Downward moves may continue after today’s inflation data. 6.45 and 6.37725 levels are major supports for the medium-term. A reverse move from that zone is a possibility. Trump wants to do major actions against China before the end of his term and Biden may choose to continue that pressure.
Biggest signal for trend reversal to the upside can be 50 day moving average.