Extending lockdowns reducing consumer confidence rapidly in Germany. GFK consumer confidence announced -15.6 points vs expected -7.9, now down 4 months in a row. In August it rose as much as -0.2 but now it is more close to the bottom March levels.
Europe is still battling new covid strains as vaccine shipments are delayed. With the new lockdowns, YoY CPI is still below zero, at -%0.3. ECB’s Lagarde talked optimistically about 2021 recovery but big banks and financial institutions reducing their forecast. IMF forecasted Europe’s 2021 GDP %6 in June then reduced its forecast to %5.2 in October and yesterday IMF reduced it further to %4.2. In the end, the pace of the vaccinations probably determines the recovery speed for Europe and Germany.