(USDCAD Daily Chart)
USDCAD is over the 14-month long downtrend. Is this the breakout or just a simple bull trap is still unknown. BOC (Bank of Canada) is the first major central bank to state rate increase after the pandemic. This hawkishness was pressuring the USDCAD for some time. FED’s recent policy change, however, changes the general outlook for parity. The markets expect BOC to start QE tapering in early 2022. BOC owns nearly %50 of the nominal bond with five years or less maturity which can be a problem even with the rollover of the current ones.
As for the technicals, 1.2350 can be the key point for direction. If USDCAD can hold above this support, odds of an attack to the 200-day moving average will increase significantly. Otherwise, some of the oscillator indicators already showing overbought signals, including RSI. But major trend breaking showing bullish market sentiment. It will be a close one.