After the havoc created by jobs data, gold is trying to recover. But incoming news still worries investors. Jackson Hole meeting might give hints about tapering, which is a good reason for some bullish traders to reduce risks. ETFs’ holdings have started to decrease again and now falling for five days in a row.
On the other side of the coin, real yields both continue to be near the lowest levels in history and remain in negative territory, which is super positive for gold. Despite tapering risks, yields persistently remain low. The monthly correlation flattened a bit with gold’s correction but may not continue for much longer, as history shows.
Our model suggests gold’s expected value is 1842 which is relatively close to the spot price. Volatility may remain low until a clear tapering signal because of closeness to the expected value.
For medium-term direction, the 233-day moving average is key for years and may continue to do so. Key resistance levels are 1806-1823-1834 and supports are 1790-1765-1675. Fundamentals giving mixed signals as well as technicals. If the price can pass 1823 and hold above for some time, gold’s outlook may change for a positive one.