It is safe to say that in the short term, EURUSD’s downtrend ended and an uptrend is ongoing. 50 bars moving average for the 4H chart is a good indicator for following the trend changes recently. Fibonacci %23.6 and %38.2 retracement levels seem to limit the up and down moves for now but EURUSD may find good support from the lower line of the trend and may extend its gains to the middle point (%50) of the September-October fall.
Option pricing is looking in favor of up possibilities as well. 1 and 2 weeks 25 delta risk reversal made a sharp rise in the last few days. 1 week risk reversal is on the positive side for the first time since early August. But medium to long-term reversals remain subdued at low levels.
50 bars moving average might continue to be a key indicator for short-term trend direction. A possible downward breaking may be the end of upside possibilities.
