While natural gas prices in Europe increased rapidly after Russia’s auctions, it also revived the concerns about the energy crisis.
As the winter months approach, Europe’s energy crisis deepens. Goldman Sachs increased its forecast for Europe’s benchmark gas price by 70 percent, as Russian supply fell short of forecasts.
In a note shared with the bank’s customers by Goldman energy analysts, it was stated that Dutch TTF natural gas contracts are expected to average $30 per million British thermal units (BTU) in November and December. This forecast was previously at $17.60.
Although Russia announced at the beginning of this month that it could increase the volume of gas exports to Europe, Gazprom PJSC tender results reveal a different picture. While Gazprom did not reserve any additional export capacity via Ukraine for next month, it only took 35 percent of the pipeline area – levels close to the October amount – to ship via Belarus and Poland.
However, Goldman kept its first-quarter price forecast at $17.6, even though its January-March futures are currently hovering at around $30 per mmBTU.
This forecast is based on the assumption that air temperatures are at normal levels during the winter months and gas flows from Russia have returned to normal by January.
Brent Forecast From Mercuria
On the other hand, another pessimistic forecast for the winter months came from Marco Dunand, CEO of Mercuria Energy Group Holding. Dunand stated that Brent oil prices are expected to hover in the $80-$90 range during the winter months, but it is possible to reach the $100 level.