The International Monetary Fund, the IMF, said that expectations for the world economy were more pessimistic than their forecasts last month.
The IMF said that prospects for the world economy were more pessimistic than last month’s forecast due to the realization of downside risks from the effects of Russia’s war and persistent inflation.
Tryggvi Gudmundsson, the economist in the IMF’s research division, wrote in a blog post on Monday, “The steady deterioration in purchasing manager indices tracked by 20 economic regions in recent months confirms that the outlook is more pessimistic than that outlined in the October World Economic Outlook (WEO) report. “There are so many challenges right now, and weakening economic indicators point to more challenges ahead,” he wrote.
The IMF lowered its global growth forecast for the next year to 2.7 percent from the projected level of 2.9 percent in July and 3.8 percent in January, adding that it sees the probability of growth falling below 2 percent as 25 percent.
“Continued fiscal and monetary tightening is likely to be needed in many countries to reduce inflation and address debt vulnerabilities, and further tightening in many G-20 economies in the coming months,” Gudmundsson wrote on the blog before G-20 leaders meet in Bali, Indonesia, next week. We look forward to it.”
Last month, the IMF calculated that nearly one-third of the world economy will contract for at least two consecutive quarters this year and next year, with a lost output of $4 trillion by 2026.