AUDUSD looks uncertain ahead of a busy week with the RBA decision and US CPI data. After testing the 200-day moving average two days in a row, AUDUSD retreated with the help of the strong US jobs report. The recent run from the lower line of the trend channel is in danger. The middle point of the channel is at 0.7170 at the moment and provides support. Tomorrow’s RBA decision will be key for further direction.
Australia’s energy regulator recently increase the electricity prices by %4-%14 in a surprise decision while crude oil prices are flirting with $120. Despite inflation, the country’s economy doing very well relative to many peers. Unemployment is below %4 and GDP announced %0.8, above expected %0.7. The Reserve bank of Australia is likely to increase its inflation forecasts to the upside for the year and keep the rate hikes coming. The future markets pricing 25 basis point hikes fully for this RBA meeting. The implied rate for the year-end is %2.77 for the moment.
If AUDUSD can break the 200-day moving average, the recent run may extend to the upper line of the trend channel in the coming weeks while below 0.7170 support might be an indicator for further down moves.
