Markets are bracing for the incoming jobs report, the Harris–Trump debate, and FOMC decisions. Ahead of the busy September calendar, Bitcoin is feeling the pressure of hard landing fears. However, the bad days may end in or after September.
The “Trump trade” gave BTC a bullish run until Biden decided to quit the presidential race, and that effect has completely faded. Although the current momentum doesn’t seem so bright, the Bitcoin halving effect should start in September or October if the historical pattern repeats itself.
(BTC – SPX Regression)
But there is some good news for traders—perhaps the first signs of hope. For the last few years, Bitcoin’s movements were heavily dependent on the U.S. stock market. This correlation seems to be decoupling. For the last one year, the correlation between the S&P 500 and Bitcoin was 88%. Since the start of this year, it fell to 57%, and since the halving, it has dropped to -20%. This decoupling could be positive for Bitcoin over the medium to long term, giving crypto markets an opportunity to enter a new bull market, even when stock market is having trouble.
However, U.S. landing scenarios will have a significant impact on crypto market sentiment. In the case of a hard landing, Bitcoin might see one final downward push before recovering with rapid rate cuts. In the case of no landing, higher rates should keep upward pressure capped. Perhaps the best-case scenario for Bitcoin would be a soft landing.
(BTCUSD Daily Chart)
Bitcoin has been in a downtrend since March. This appears to be a corrective trend before another leg up. The key zone for Bitcoin is between 52,500 and 55,000, where previous support, current horizontal support, and the lower line of the trend channel converge. Unless this zone is broken, the downward moves may present buying opportunities. Traders should also be cautious of intraday spikes that could be false breakouts.
