EURJPY fell hard with the start of the Ukraine war. Japanese Yen is considered a safe haven during times of uncertainty while the Euro area is the most affected region with increased conflict risks and dependency on Russian and Ukrainian commodities and goods. But with the hard fall, the price come down to the middle point of the 2020-2021 rally. Also, EURJPY is almost at minus 3 standard deviation of the 200-day moving average. The last 3 of the 5 times this happened, EURJPY got upside corrections without changing the bearish trend direction and the other 2 times, the trend direction changed to bullish.
A bullish trend change seems unlikely unless the current situation changes, but a correction may happen if EURJPY can hold above 124.24. Possible up moves might cause the price to retest 127.50. But the main trend is still bearish and with the breaking of 124.24, EURJPY may fall to 121.93 and 119.06 supports in the near future.
