Gold has been trending with a very small-sloped trend since April, ranging between 2280-2310 on the downside and 2450-2480 on the upside. While the upward pressure faced strong resistance from profit-taking, the reverse Trump trade, reverse carry trade, delayed rate cuts, and high yields in the bond market, but gold has stayed strong despite the narrative and it has started to form a steeper uptrend, putting more pressure on the upper bound of the current trend channel.
(XAUUSD Daily Chart)
Now, the dynamics that have been capping the gold price are changing. The carry trade is back, bond yields are falling, there is a risk of an Iran-Israel conflict depending on how Iran and Israel respond, the probability of a Gaza truce has gotten lower, and the Fed is getting ready to cut rates. This change in dynamics is starting to put more pressure on the upper bound. The frequency of upward tests has increased significantly, and the bottoms are staying higher and higher. If the 2480 resistance finally fails, the blue trend channel might become the new active trend from now on. Within a one-week period from today, gold might decide whether to break out or turn more bearish for the short to medium term.
