Gold is finally breaking the uptrend after almost one and a half years. Despite the bond market pricing and tightening monetary policy across the globe, the Ukraine conflict and recession worries made gold one of the main assets of many portfolios. Despite the break, 1765, major horizontal support is still in play. But below it, there is a wide zone with no major support, worth around $90. 1675-1682 zone is both major support and resistance in pre-covid times. This zone will be the next target for below 1765 moves.
For upside moves, 1800 and 1832 are the major resistance levels for the short term.
10-year government bond real yield is one of the main drives for gold for decades. There is a big negative correlation between the two. But lately, the correlation weaken because of the other exterior factors. The last two times the yield is that high, price of gold was 1480 and 1270. If the gap starts to contract, the price of gold might not stop at the 1765 or 1675 supports.
On the other hand, if recession risks continue to increase, that might hold the gold for some time and give some time to yields to reverse before crashing the 1675 support.
