Gold is dealing with major selling pressure from the real rates. Real rates turned positive for the first time since March 2020, the covid crisis. After months of upper pressure, 10-year breakeven starts to fall with FED’s rate hikes while 10-year bond rates still test around %3.
The last time breakeven was below the bond rate, gold was below $1500. With a correlation above %80 between them, gold is under pressure. On the other hand, stagflation, recession, and geopolitical risks holding the bullion, for now.
The 233-day moving average is a key indicator for medium to long-term gold prices. The MA is at 1831.57 at the moment and giving support to the gold to continue its uptrend. But if broken, it may take down the gold with it.
