Gold made a huge run in the past two months from below 1700 to over 1900. Three things played a major role in this run:
1- Bond rates remain steady while inflation expectations continue their rise.
2- Crypto crash cause some of the actual and potential investment back to the gold because of volatility risks.
3- Maybe not independent from the first two, ETF holdings started to rise again.
Now that the ETF holdings back near their downtrend, we will discuss what can be expected in the short term for the gold.
Gold is starting to lose momentum after its incredible run. RMI (Relative Momentum) is flirting with its moving average above 80 and RSI (Relative Strength) is turning downside from the overbought zone. The last two times when RMI break the moving average after returning from +80 levels and RSI turning downside from overbought levels, gold entered a bearish trend. Now RSI gave the signal and RMI is about to but still not yet. As for the actual price. The short-term red trend channel is broken as today, it is testing the 1890 support line. If that support breaks too selling pressures may start to rise. For the short-term, below 1890, the 233-day moving average will be important for the gold. Below from it will be dangerous for the gold bulls.
For upward moves, gold must remain above 1890 and must pass 1922 resistance.
