Ripple finally received its long-awaited ruling yesterday and went ballistic. A US judge ruled that Ripple tokens are not securities when sold to the general public. This ruling significantly reduces the SEC’s jurisdiction over the crypto markets. Following the ruling, Coinbase and Kraken decided to relist XRP. The news caused a massive surge in all crypto markets, with Ripple leading the way. On a logarithmic scale, XRP is already preparing for a significant jump after breaking and retesting the downtrend from 2021. XRP momentarily surpassed a 100% return but was rejected at the Fibonacci 38.2% resistance level of 0.9282. The upward pressure may continue for some time, making downward moves potential buying opportunities as long as the 23.6% level holds.
BTC’s reaction was more subdued compared to the altcoins, possibly due to the significant resistance zone between 31000-34000 and because the altcoins are expected to be more affected by this ruling. The 31000-34000 zone served as a strong support throughout the 2021-2022 period, but it has now transitioned into a key resistance level. A breakout in this range could be a gamechanger for Bitcoin in the medium term. Furthermore, the uptrend that began in early 2023 continues, with the upper line of the trend channel currently around 34700.
Looking at the chart from an alternative perspective, since the beginning of the uptrend, BTCUSD has been gradually rising, forming two tops with the second one surpassing the previous one by approximately 5%-6%. This is followed by a downward correction and a short-term downtrend, eventually leading to a breakout and further upward moves. If this pattern repeats, BTC may once again jump to the 33250-34000 zone before undergoing a downward correction, aligning with the long-term resistance at 34000. The Ripple ruling, increasing pressure on the SEC, and ETF filings from major players like Blackrock are adding upward pressure.
Considering the downside risk in the short term, back in February, prior to forming the second top, BTC experienced a drop of over $1000 (indicated by the yellow circle). The current top pattern’s low level is around 30000. If the price falls below 30000, there could be a similar mini correction before the breakout, although the likelihood of that happening has decreased after the Ripple ruling. Any downward moves could be viewed as buying opportunities as long as the uptrend remains intact.
For alt traders, this ruling is good news as altcoins are surging more than Bitcoin, and this trend could continue in the short term. However, as the dominance of altcoins falls below 48%, there may be a shift towards BTC from the altcoins, which could prove to be more profitable. With ETF talks expected to heat up in the coming weeks, this shift could bring opportunities, especially for medium to long-term crypto holders. It is important to monitor the current uptrend in Bitcoin dominance and ensure it remains intact.
