Silver has made major gains in the last couple of weeks, catching up to gold to a degree. Since the 2nd of April, gold has risen by 3.52%, while silver has surged nearly 9%. In line with the idea of pair trade, we expect silver to outshine gold in the coming months. However, in the short term, there are some risks. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has come in hot for three months in a row now, and after the California minimum wage raise, incoming data might stay hotter in the next few months too. This is tapering the overextended rate cut expectations, but so far this has not affected the markets too much, especially for gold and silver.
(XAGUSD Weekly Chart)
The upward pressure is very clear at the moment. However, a short-term reversal from 28.50 has a significant probability in our view. A retest of 26 and finding support from there is the baseline scenario. Nevertheless, if the pressure continues despite the tapering of rate cut expectations, with two weekly closes above 28.50, the strong performance might persist.
