Silver, just like gold, made huge gains in September. The jumbo rate cut from the Fed was a significant positive surprise for silver bulls. Additionally, the surge in unemployment and substantial revisions to payroll data in recent months further boosted prices. On top of that, the escalation in the Middle East reached a new level with Israel’s operation in Lebanon and Iran’s missile attack on Israel, creating a perfect storm for both gold and silver.
However, this storm might be nearing its end, at least in the short term. Friday’s jobs report was strong across the board, marking the second consecutive month where unemployment declined by 0.1%. Many financial institutions are already lowering their forecasts on the pace of future rate cuts from the Fed. China also failed to impress traders with a lack of additional stimulus, and Israel has yet to respond to Iran’s actions.
(XAGUSD Daily Chart)
Silver is now at a decision point: will it maintain its gains or trigger some profit-taking? A potential double top pattern has formed in both the medium term (yellow) and short term (red). The yellow double top still needs more confirmation to be validated, but the short-term one is on the verge of deciding whether it will activate or fail. The key level to watch is 30.95. If silver breaks below and closes below this level on a daily basis, the double top target could be near 29.25, a level that has previously acted as resistance twice. However, as long as the 30.95 support holds, silver bulls will likely remain in control.
