USDCHF is on the rise since the 0.8550 support was tested multiple times in July. However, the upward momentum gained more speed this month due to a surging dollar index and the SNB’s decision to hold the rates at 1.75%. Yesterday’s GDP data, however, might alter the short-term trajectory, as it showed lower-than-expected consumption and easing GDP price index. Looking ahead, today’s PCE data from the US, along with manufacturing PMI and CPI data from Switzerland next week, will be crucial in determining USDCHF’s direction.
The ten-month-long downtrend line was broken in August, and USDCHF regained the 100-day moving average in early September. Nevertheless, a possible downward correction may have started yesterday after the RSI reached as high as 86. If the core PCE remains subdued at 0.2%, this potential short-term correction might extend towards the 21-day moving average. However, any downward correction could be viewed as a buying opportunity as long as the uptrend remains intact. The 21-day moving average can be monitored for short-term trend analysis, while the 100-day moving average is likely to determine the medium-term trend in the coming weeks. As long as the uptrend holds, USDCHF might continue its rally towards resistance levels at 0.9350 and 0.9540.
