Gold is testing the major resistance of 1875. Since the last year and a half, the spot price could not make a close above this resistance. The only time it is broken, gold tested the long-term horizontal resistance, 1920. While 1875 tested,
Gold is pushing up north for some time now despite rising yields, fueled by the Ukrainian crisis. But today, Russia decides to return some of the troops to their bases after finishing the planned military drills according to Russian news agency Interfax. This might slow the gold. For downside moves, Fibonacci retracement levels can be followed as possible support levels. Below %50 of the recent run (1830), gold decline may speed up.
But news activity is still high and things may change, fast. A possible breakout above 1875 might lead the price to 1920 resistance again.
Real yields have been always the enemy of Gold. Recently the high negative correlation between them has broken, even turned positive. But of course, this won’t last. The last time the yields were this high, Gold is at $1700. According to the simple regression between them, if all the other factors are dismissed, gold should be just above $1600. If the Ukrainian crisis ends or the immediate threat disappears, gold might fall back to below 1800.
