AUDUSD trying to hold in the recent uptrend channel, but the recent data is making it harder for it to do so. From the US’s side, extra strong jobs data and slower inflation fall is supporting the US dollar. On Australia’s side, today’s weak jobs report could weaken the hawkish rhetoric of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Unemployment rose by %0.2 while the participation rate fell by %0.1 at the same time with 43.3k net full-time job loss painting a bad picture. Currently, the markets expect a 25 basis points hike for RBA’s next meeting with a %72 probability. If this falls more, the uptrend could be in jeopardy.
The momentum is shifting back, the RMI index fell below 50 with a sell signal. The key support for AUDUSD could be 0.68 because both the lower line of the trend channel and the 200-day moving average is near this level. As long is it holds, no reason to panic for AUD bulls. But if worsening fundamentals increase the downside pressure, with a break the price could fall to either 0.6664 or 0.6547 and try to find support near those levels.
