AUDUSD is closing in on a decision about which way to go over the long term. Aussie has been testing the 11 years long trend channels upper line since the massive covid surge which took the price to 0.8 from 0.55. After the 3 upside tests, AUD is starting to lose momentum. 89-week moving linear regression slope turned negative below its own moving average and the last two upside attempts came out short and stayed below the middle point of shorter term trend (green trend channel).
There are two key data coming this week that can change the current negative outlook, at least for the short term. The first one is the FOMC minutes. If the hawkish expectations proved wrong today it might support a more bullish AUDUSD. The second one is the jobs report from Australia. After last month’s big positive surprise, another strong jobs report surprise might support the Reserve Bank of Australia for more hawkish decisions in the coming meeting, therefore supporting AUD.
For upside moves, the current middle point of the green trend channel, 0.72 is a key resistance. Upon possible breakout, Aussie might surge to the 11-year-long trend line in a matter of a few weeks. For downside moves, the last dip, the middle point of covid rise, 0.6760 is the main support for the time being.
