Negative real rates did not help TRY last year while the central bank’s reserves depleted while trying to hold USDTRY with low rates and rising money supply. After the change of leadership of the economy, CBRT turned hawkish and increase the rates to %17 in two months. This move has brought down USDTRY by more than %19. But inflation gets higher with surging oil and food prices. The difference between inflation and CBRT rate began to shrink while Biden’s Turkey policy with the ongoing S-400 crisis is still unknown. Rising risks and shrinking real rates may pressure USDTRY to go higher at least until CBRT decide to intervene.
USDTRY broke the 4-month Bullish Wedge Formation and surge to a 7.20 resistance level. 7.20 and 7.50 levels could be important in the medium term. If the price can move past 7.20, USDTRY may start a consolidation period between 7.20 and 7.50 then decide which direction to go.
For downward moves 7.05 and 6.90-6.95 can be followed as support levels.
