The non-farm payrolls change data has been always a big market mover. Good data shows that the US economy and the jobs market are getting better, which may cause inflation to remain high and gives more room for FED to tighten its policy to reach price stability, thus usually giving the dollar index a boost.
In the last 2 times, the payrolls data announced with a more than 2 standard deviation positive surprise. EURUSD fell as expected but the down move somewhat remain muted over the 6 hours. The biggest declines came in the first 2 hours, then gradually EURUSD recovered.
The previous of those positive surprises, in January and December, the nonfarm payrolls data announced with a minus 2.30 and minus 4.68 standard deviation surprise. The big negative surprise gave EURUSD a big boost over the 6 hours period. In January, up moves continued throughout the period while in December EURUSD moves were a bit more chaotic, but rose more than %0.27 in the end.
The gold’s response to the positive data has not been as straightforward as the EURUSD lately. In March, amid the Ukraine invasion, gold held its ground against the dollar. But in February, fell %1 in the first hour and finished the 6 hours period, down %4.07.
With January’s and December’s negative surprises, gold rose as expected, %0.434 and %0.753. The up moves were gradual but stayed above the initial level of data announcement throughout the period.
