US crude oil is pushing upward as talks for Iran nuclear deal is finalizing. News flow has increased in volume lately. The EU foreign minister Borrell said that the deal can be reached on the weekend if the US agrees while a US diplomat said that there are still differences between US and Iran despite Iran’s dropping off some key demands.
While the talks continue, more news comes from the OPEC. According to many news agencies, OPEC is considering an output cut if the nuclear deal has reached. A day before that, the Saudi energy minister signals a possible output cut which triggered the current upward move for the crude oil. With the recent up move, crude broke the downtrend that started in early June at the same time relative momentum index (RMI) gave a rare buy signal, the fourth one in one year period. The earlier buy signals from the RMI caused %25, %85, and %20 gains for crude oil. But the 200-day moving average is still a key resistance in front of more upside. If that MA will be broken too, 104.32 and 110 levels might be the next targets. On the other hand, an agreement on the nuclear deal and breaking of the previous bottom 85.88 might trigger a big sell-off. It will be wise to be extra careful amid massive news flow coming for the oil prices.
